Trades, Anyone?

It's no secret that Theo Epstein would love to add another bat before Friday's 4:00pm trading deadline, but will he be able to find one without overpaying? A month ago it appeared that the Red Sox had too many starting pitchers. Now injury has claimed two of them, leaving the back end of the Red Sox rotation in the hands of a struggling 42 year old and a talented but unproven youngster. It appears unlikely that Boston will be able to deal Brad Penny as many expected. Some are even clamoring for the Sox to add a big name starter. The bullpen has been very good this year (aside from a few rough spells), so good in fact that the Red Sox many be able to deal away a reliever. So what could happen between now and 4:00pm on Friday? Let's look at a few options.

Roy Halladay, SP Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay is on of the best starters in baseball, but the price tag here is enormous and it will be even larger for Boston because Toronto would understandably be reluctant to trade Halladay within the division. Still, Toronto GM J.P. Riccardi has to deal him by Friday or watch his value plummet. As for Boston, they have a lot of starting pitching depth within their division, but the feeling here is that they will be reluctant to deal away their long term depth for a short term (year and a half) upgrade.
Gordon Edes reported earlier that Boston had offered Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Single-A outfield prospect Ryan Westmoreland for Halladay, but that report was proven false. He is now reporting that the offer is Buchholz, the Blue Jays choice of Bowden, Justin Masterson, or Double-A first baseman Lars Anderson, along with lesser prospects. Considering that the earlier similar report was false, Edes was the only one breaking the story, the Red Sox' reluctance to trade Buchholz, and Anderson being one of a precious few power hitters in the Sox system (and is being dealt away for a pitcher), I don't believe this report either.
If the Red Sox get wind that the Yankees are in on Halladay, they may try in increase the price the Yankees must pay by including Buchholz in a deal as a bluff. Don't expect them to pull the trigger though. Theo Epstein is not in the business of selling the farm to play defense against the Yankees.
Chances this will happen: 5%

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B San Diego Padres - Gonzalez is one of the top young sluggers in baseball. He has put up excellent numbers despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league and hitting in a lineup that offers him no support or protection. This guy would absolutely rake at Fenway for the Sox. Still, San Diego is extremly reluctant to part with him for many reasons, so his cost would be a least that of Halladay. Since Boston has depth in pitching but no hitting, it would make more sense to trade top prospects for someone like Gonzalez than it would be to trade for Halladay, but trade talks have not moved very far at all and it appears very unlikely that Gonzalez will be dealt.
Chances this will happen: 2%

Victor Martinez, C/1B Cleveland Indians - Martinez would solve the Red Sox' catching problem for a few years and back up Lowell, Youkilis, and Ortiz in the same way that Adam LaRoche does now, all while providing the middle-of-the-order bat the Red Sox need. The two sides have traded names, but for the moment Cleveland will not part with him unless they receive Clay Buchholz in return, something Boston has been reluctant to do. Cleveland's asking price may drop as the deadline approaches, especially if they are unable to deal Cliff Lee for players that will allow them to contend next year.
Chances this will happen: 20%

Cliff Lee, SP Cleveland Indians - This would be a very similar situation to the Roy Halladay one. The Red Sox, though, like Halladay better, making a deal for Lee less likely.
Chances this will happen: 3%

Boston Bullpen - Boston's bullpen depth might allow Epstein to trade a reliever in a deal of some sort. Trading away quality bullpen arms rarely works out well for contending teams. On the other hand, freeing up a bullpen spot would give the Sox a place to put John Smoltz or Clay Buchholz when Tim Wakefield returns.
Chances this will happen: 25%

OVERVIEW: A big name player is likely not his way to Boston by Friday. Theo Epstein had traded stars, but he usually trades them away (Nomar, Manny). He also has never traded away his top prospects. (The Beckett/Lowell for Hanley Ramirez deal happened during the brief spell when Theo was not the GM.) Don't expect him to start this week. There are no big stars that need trading away this year, so look for Theo to make smaller moves, possibly for a bat. Expect deals on the scale of the Adam LaRoche trade.