Trades, Anyone?

It's no secret that Theo Epstein would love to add another bat before Friday's 4:00pm trading deadline, but will he be able to find one without overpaying? A month ago it appeared that the Red Sox had too many starting pitchers. Now injury has claimed two of them, leaving the back end of the Red Sox rotation in the hands of a struggling 42 year old and a talented but unproven youngster. It appears unlikely that Boston will be able to deal Brad Penny as many expected. Some are even clamoring for the Sox to add a big name starter. The bullpen has been very good this year (aside from a few rough spells), so good in fact that the Red Sox many be able to deal away a reliever. So what could happen between now and 4:00pm on Friday? Let's look at a few options.

Roy Halladay, SP Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay is on of the best starters in baseball, but the price tag here is enormous and it will be even larger for Boston because Toronto would understandably be reluctant to trade Halladay within the division. Still, Toronto GM J.P. Riccardi has to deal him by Friday or watch his value plummet. As for Boston, they have a lot of starting pitching depth within their division, but the feeling here is that they will be reluctant to deal away their long term depth for a short term (year and a half) upgrade.
Gordon Edes reported earlier that Boston had offered Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Single-A outfield prospect Ryan Westmoreland for Halladay, but that report was proven false. He is now reporting that the offer is Buchholz, the Blue Jays choice of Bowden, Justin Masterson, or Double-A first baseman Lars Anderson, along with lesser prospects. Considering that the earlier similar report was false, Edes was the only one breaking the story, the Red Sox' reluctance to trade Buchholz, and Anderson being one of a precious few power hitters in the Sox system (and is being dealt away for a pitcher), I don't believe this report either.
If the Red Sox get wind that the Yankees are in on Halladay, they may try in increase the price the Yankees must pay by including Buchholz in a deal as a bluff. Don't expect them to pull the trigger though. Theo Epstein is not in the business of selling the farm to play defense against the Yankees.
Chances this will happen: 5%

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B San Diego Padres - Gonzalez is one of the top young sluggers in baseball. He has put up excellent numbers despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league and hitting in a lineup that offers him no support or protection. This guy would absolutely rake at Fenway for the Sox. Still, San Diego is extremly reluctant to part with him for many reasons, so his cost would be a least that of Halladay. Since Boston has depth in pitching but no hitting, it would make more sense to trade top prospects for someone like Gonzalez than it would be to trade for Halladay, but trade talks have not moved very far at all and it appears very unlikely that Gonzalez will be dealt.
Chances this will happen: 2%

Victor Martinez, C/1B Cleveland Indians - Martinez would solve the Red Sox' catching problem for a few years and back up Lowell, Youkilis, and Ortiz in the same way that Adam LaRoche does now, all while providing the middle-of-the-order bat the Red Sox need. The two sides have traded names, but for the moment Cleveland will not part with him unless they receive Clay Buchholz in return, something Boston has been reluctant to do. Cleveland's asking price may drop as the deadline approaches, especially if they are unable to deal Cliff Lee for players that will allow them to contend next year.
Chances this will happen: 20%

Cliff Lee, SP Cleveland Indians - This would be a very similar situation to the Roy Halladay one. The Red Sox, though, like Halladay better, making a deal for Lee less likely.
Chances this will happen: 3%

Boston Bullpen - Boston's bullpen depth might allow Epstein to trade a reliever in a deal of some sort. Trading away quality bullpen arms rarely works out well for contending teams. On the other hand, freeing up a bullpen spot would give the Sox a place to put John Smoltz or Clay Buchholz when Tim Wakefield returns.
Chances this will happen: 25%

OVERVIEW: A big name player is likely not his way to Boston by Friday. Theo Epstein had traded stars, but he usually trades them away (Nomar, Manny). He also has never traded away his top prospects. (The Beckett/Lowell for Hanley Ramirez deal happened during the brief spell when Theo was not the GM.) Don't expect him to start this week. There are no big stars that need trading away this year, so look for Theo to make smaller moves, possibly for a bat. Expect deals on the scale of the Adam LaRoche trade.

Dice-K Blasts Sox' Pitching Program

Daisuke Matsuzaka, speaking to the Japanese media, was recently very critical of the Red Sox' pitching program. He claimed that his success of the past two years was in spite of the program, which he blamed for his struggles this year. Red Sox manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell both said the public criticism (backstabbing?) by their own player was "disappointing." Farrell claimed the Dice-K's personalized program was developed jointly and conducted openly at all times. He thought Dice-K and the team were on the same page. Many have blamed the World Baseball Classic for Dice-K's struggles, but Farrell seemed to place more emphasis on the fact that Dice-K reported to spring training in horrible shape, meaning his struggles are largely his own fault. Dice-K does look rather chubby, so Farrell's claim is not so hard to believe. Still, Dice-K is frustrated with his performance so far this season, so his comments may have been an attempt to deflect criticism away from himself and onto the Red Sox.

Pap Blows Save, Sox Lose 9-8 In 11

Clay Buchholz did his job. He pitched 5 2/3 innings giving up just 2 runs and left with a 5-2 lead. By the time Jonathan Papelbon entered the game in the 9th the lead was 7-4. Yet Papelbon could not close the door as he allowed Oakland to tie the game at 7. The A's scored two more off Manny Delcarmen in the 11th to take a two run lead. The Red Sox brought a run across in the bottom of the inning, but Dustin Pedroia flew out to left for the final out, stranding the tying run on third. That sealed what will be a very tough loss for the Sox to swallow.

The Red Sox also retired Jim Rice's #14 before the game. Rice was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame over the weekend.

Next Game: Wednesday, 7:10 vs. Oakland

Sox Go Bird Hunting, Beat O's 7-2

Jon Lester simply loves facing Baltimore. Entering Saturday's game he was 8-0 against them in his career. He improved to 9-0 against the O's on Saturday by pitching 7 innings of 2-run ball, striking out 9 in the process. Offensive support came from David Ortiz, who hit a solo homer to center, and newly acquired Adam LaRoche, who hit a 2-run opposite field homer into the monster seats. The Sox improve to 2-0 on the homestand after dropping 5 straight on the road. They also pulled within 1.5 games of the Yankees who lost 6-4 to Oakland.


Next Game: Sunday, 1:35pm vs. Baltimore

On Vacation

See you Wednesday or Thursday.

Buchholz An All-Star

Ok, so maybe that's a little misleading, but it's still true. Clay Buchholz is indeed an All-Star - for the International League (AAA). Buchholz has dominated the International League this season, going 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA. The other PawSox All-Star is their closer, Fernando Cabrera. Cabrera currently has 16 saves and a 1.03 ERA.

Wednesday Afternoon: Red Sox Stage Comeback, Win 6-5 in 11th as Papelbon Sets Record

After Tuesday's demoralizing collapse the Red Sox badly needed a win. For the first 8 innings it looked like that wouldn't happen, as the O's tagged Sox ace Josh Beckett for 5 runs and took a 5-1 lead into the 9th. That's when the Sox finally came to life. After a Dustin Pedroia walk, Kevin Youkilis sent a fan in the right field bleacher home with a souvenir to pull the Sox within 2 at 5-3. The O's brought in their closer George Sherrill who fanned Jason Bay (0 for 5, 5 SO) and struck out David Ortiz looking for the second out. Down to their last out, the Sox counted on Jacoby Ellsbury to extend the game. He did just that with a single. Sherrill then walked Jeff Bailey and Jason Varitek to load the bases. Rocco Baldelli hit for Nick Green, and he singled up the middle, driving in 2 runs to tie the game. It stayed that way until the 11th. Elllsbury led off with a double and Bailey got him to third with a sacrifice fly. Julio Lugo was up next, and he singled to center to drive in Ellsbury. Papelbon took over in the bottom of the inning and retired the side in order to notch his 133rd career save, passing Bob Stanley for most ever by a Red Sox closer. Red Sox pitchers retired the last 24 Orioles they faced.

Next Game: Friday, 7:10 vs. Seattle Mariners

Sox, Bay Likely to Discuss Contract Extension

The Boston Globe's Tony Mazzarotti is reporting that the Red Sox will likely talk to Jason Bay about a contract extension before the season ends, probably over the All-Star break. The two sides talked during spring training, but the tough economic climate prevented them from striking a deal. It would be a good move by Boston if they can sign him during the season, but I doubt they will be able to do so before he becomes a free agent after this season. Bay will undoubtedly make more money if multiple teams can bid on him. (The Yankees will likely be in the market for a left fielder after this season.) Even if Bay had no intention whatsoever of leaving Boston, he can use other teams to command more money from the Red Sox. So unless the Red Sox give him an offer he can't refuse, don't expect anything to come from this latest round of negotiations.

Mike Lowell to the DL

The Red Sox placed 3B Mike Lowell on the 15-day DL yesterday, citing a right hip strain. The move is retroactive to June 28th. Lowell had previously had an injection in the hip as well as fluid drained from it, but clearly the Red Sox felt that he needed some rest. The move effectively sidelines him until after the All-Star break. While Lowell's injury will likely continue to bother him for the rest of the season, he should not be on the DL much longer than 15 days, meaning the Red Sox are unlikely to trade for another starting third baseman before the July 31st trading deadline.

Tuesday Night: Sox Blow 10-1 Lead, Lose 11-10

The headline on Dirtdogs read, "Sox Blow the Biggest Lead in the History of Earth." That may have been an exaggeration, but it certainly didn't feel like it. The usually-solid Red Sox bullpen was handed a 10-1 lead last night and coughed it up in a horrible collapse that involved a Jonathan Papelbon blown save. It is the first time in 20 years that Boston has blow such a large lead. The Red Sox started out strong, getting 4 innings of 1-run ball from starter John Smoltz before his outing was cut short due to a rain delay. After the break the Sox simply did not have their heads in the game. That was never more apparent than in the bottom of the 6th when they embarrassed themselves by walking off the field after only two outs.